By German Orient Foundation

RECOMMENDATIONS

Priority of direct, emergency aid to IDP’s
The most recent military offensive in Swat created a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions. To prevent radicalization of Internally Displaced People (IDP) in the refugee camps by infiltrating Islamist militants, the care for the IDP must enjoy highest priority. That is why aid must reach the people directly – irrespective of governmental contribution or approval. The members of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP)1 initiative should intervene immediately and decide on immediate and direct aid distribution in close cooperation with UNHCR.

Extending the “AfPak” strategy
The new U.S. strategy focusing on Pakistan and Afghanistan as common field of action is a step in the right direction. However, the primacy of military actions and Obama’s slogan “to disrupt, dismantle and defeat” al-Qaeda neglect the necessity of development assistance and sustainable, confidence-building measures. Pakistan and Afghanistan are more than two interconnected battlefields, and the U.S. must take local economic and cultural conditions into consideration. To implement a broad-based approach towards development assistance, the EU and transnational institutions such as the FoDP and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) should be engaged to foster international cooperation of donors and friends of Pakistan.

Political dialogue with GCC States to generate more development assistance to Pakistan
Germany should conduct a systematic political dialogue with decision-makers in GCC countries in order to convince them that the stabilization of democratic Pakistan is in their own security interest. This should lead to an increased level of financial and technical assistance by the GCC States in close cooperation with Germany.

Disentangling development assistance by GCC countries from religious mission
Security and economic concerns will prompt Saudi Arabia and the other GCC countries to distance itself explicitly from madrasas in Pakistan. However, as much as Saudi Arabia must reconsider its traditional patterns of engagement, it must be given incentives. The kingdom wants to act on an equal footing with international partners such as Germany and must be engaged beyond its role as a rich donor country. Thus, only well-structured development proposals with a clear task-sharing between Germany and Saudi Arabia will engage the kingdom in a constructive way.

Expanding the contribution of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
The UAE have a fairly long record of financial and development assistance for and investments in Pakistan. However, mistrust in Pakistani politics and the corrupt government still restrict an increasing engagement of the UAE in Pakistan. The Emirates will not accept the simple role as a financial donor for German supplies of technical and personal equipment to Pakistan. The UAE have a political interest in acting on an equal footing. As a Muslim state, it should be encouraged to focus on education. The Abu Dhabi Fund should extend its engagement in Pakistan by financing projects in agriculture, water management and Renewable Energy (RE). The UAE, like Saudi Arabia, will focus on projects related to food security in Pakistan. Those projects will have to be adapted to a community-based approach and planned accordingly. It is absolutely necessary, that a code of conduct has to be agreed on. 1 Members of the FoDP are Britain, France, Germany, the United States, China, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, Turkey, Australia and Italy plus the United Nations and the European Union.

Supporting the rural population with direct, community-based assistance
International development assistance has to concentrate on small and medium-sized projects that can be implemented at little cost and with minimal administrative or bureaucratic effort in order to avoid corruption and delay. To attain long-term sustainability of projects, the social heterogeneity between regions and districts, villages and towns as well as families and clans must be taken into consideration. The involvement of Gulf States to co-finance development projects in the education, energy, vocational training and agriculture sector could secure this sustainability.

Education must enhanced and opened to all
With a young population (50% under the age of 25) and a high illiteracy rate of 60%, Pakistan has to invest much more in general and quality education if it wants to be competitive in the globalised world. The road to social justice has to be paved with education of the right mindset and the fight against ignorance and radicalism. Here, moderate Muslim countries, like Turkey, could play an important role.

Integration of non-governmental players
Religious authorities such as local mullahs as well as civilian players should be engaged in a strategy of mediation and participation in development projects. To build up a front-line against the militants’ influence, religious leaders and incorrupt civilian role models from culture or sports who are independent from the political elite have to be strengthened. One agent of civilian opposition and reestablishment of the rule of law is the lawyers’ movement. Lawyers and judges should be supported with technical assistance to strengthen the rule of law.

Corruption and bad governance
Corruption and bad governance could endanger every development assistance project. Pakistan’s administrative and bureaucratic system is interspersed with corruption. Although the licensing of projects will necessitate some degree of cooperation with the bureaucracy, emphasis has to be put on local partners and NGOs rather than on state actors.

Change the Pakistani’s attitude towards the insurgent regions
A strong correlation exists between the deterioration of the people’s general living conditions and the rise of anti-government and anti-U.S. feelings. To counter that tendency, military operations must be careful to avoid collateral damages. Civilians killed by U.S. drone attacks and the Pakistani perception that all Pakistanis are suspected as militants by the U.S. raise the hatred against the “foreign invaders” and the own government. Thus, the Pakistani government as well as the new U.S. administration must offer peaceful, alternative options for the future. Development assistance projects on a small or medium scale are one of these alternatives: These projects could be implemented more quickly so that people could benefit from the efforts after a short time. This will gradually return the people’s trust in the government and significantly reduce the influence of the militants.

Cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan
Pakistan and Afghanistan must cooperate more closely on bilateral issues. To overcome the bilateral tensions, confidence-building measures and compromises from both sides are necessary. The controversial status of the Durand Line should be resolved and cross-border projects implemented. For the rural population of the Pakistani and Afghani border region, a border between the states is in fact inexistent - familial ties are crossing borders. Pakistan and Afghanistan are often perceived solely as objects of military action and battlefields, but not as regional actors. By supporting the improvement of bilateral relations and ongoing, joint development projects, both countries could act to stabilize their deteriorating security situation and to pacify the border region.

Strengthening the role of Turkey and Qatar
Turkey may be a promising partner to achieve sustainable stability in Pakistan. Pakistan’s government initiated domestic education programs organized and executed by Turkish teachers and staff to create a secular counterweight to the religious madrasas. Turkey as a secular Muslim state with a system of education of good reputation may play the role of an “honest broker,” neither seen as a corrupt or extremely westernized regime, nor rejected as negotiator by the international community, like Iran or Saudi Arabia. Qatar could be engaged in two ways: First, it may be committed to support development assistance projects, similar to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Second, as an emerging centre of political influence in the Golf region with good relations to conflicting, regional players - such as Saudi Arabia or Iran - Qatar, like Turkey, may bridge gaps and act as a relatively neutral negotiator.

Participation of Iran and India in regional initiatives
Iran has a vital interest in stabilizing Afghanistan and consequently Pakistan. To benefit from this interest, the international community has to start direct negotiations with Iran immediately. Iran is a difficult partner for negotiations but Obama tried to open new windows of opportunity and the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan is such an opportunity. The West, the Gulf States and Iran share the same interests, namely to contain the Talibanisation as well as the smuggling of narcotics from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Furthermore, the interrupted peace negotiations between Pakistan and India have to be continued. Both states have to settle the bilateral conflict and should concentrate on fighting the common threat posed by the militants. To create an atmosphere of trust and openness, both states should build up cooperation between the intelligence and the security ervices.

Read the complete paper (PDF, 72 pages, 1,5 MB)