As they gear up for a major fight in Waziristan, Pakistan's leaders had better learn from their mistakes -- or things could get ugly in a hurry.

As the summer solstice draws near, it seems as if all the evil spirits are coming out to haunt the body politic of Pakistan. The country faces an escalation in hostilities on many fronts. And unlike in the past, when sweet deals and concessions could woo militants and protesters into silence, this time no amount of amulets will drive them away.

On the battlefield, the portents exist for a major new clash between the Army and the country's homegrown militants. There are reports of forthcoming military action against fighters in South Waziristan, on top of the Army's ongoing assault against the Taliban in Swat and Malakand. The fighting in Swat has displaced nearly 3 million people in just over a month -- a number likely to swell as the Army moves into Waziristan. One might expect protests against the government and even perhaps the military to erupt if these internally displaced persons (IDPs) cannot swiftly and safely return home.

Shuja Nawaz is director of the South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council and author most recently of "FATA -- A Most Dangerous Place" and Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within. He can be reached at snawaz@acus.org.

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